The best answer I could come up with was: “I don’t know”.
I hated myself for saying that.
I came to a point where I’m scared to promise a deadline. I don’t want to disappoint my students. I don’t want to disappoint myself either.
But I realize that I can’t say “I don’t know” to students who already bought the course. They have a right to know. So today, I’m going to overcome my fear and provide you with a proper estimate.
Before I tell you the estimated completion date, let me tell you why my estimates have failed so far.
Why my estimates have failed
That confidence was rooted in thin air. I came up with a number I could live with and decided I’ll complete it then.
And I ran into two problems:
- I did not expect the amount of work to balloon.
- I did not expect to spend time on other activities
I did not expect work to balloon
But it wasn’t.
My outline was shit.
Why 3-5 times?
When there’s more content, there’s more work.
I’m going to live through this promise. Even if I had to do lots of extra work.
I’ll never cut corners on my promises.
I did not expect to spend time on other activities
I was foolish to think this way.
2017 was a harsh year. I barely earned enough for a living with my books and courses. I needed money. I had to save up for a mortgage and a child in the next two years.
During this period, I considered looking for a job and stopping my blog for good.
But I forgot that I still had to blog. And I had to create videos. The marketing has to go on! And I dedicated almost half my working hours to the blog and the video.
These activities took time.
So you’ve heard a short story about how I sucked at estimating work. And my stupidity about estimating time. You’re ready to hear the estimate.
Here’s what I know:
- There’s still 100+ more lessons to write (if I use the current outline)
If I go at a rate of 2 lessons per week, I’ll be able to finish the course in approximately one year.
But there are still two factors that I don’t know about:
- Will I have to expand on the outline again?
- Will my working cycles be disrupted by other reasons?
Regarding the outline, I know I’ll have to expand the outline for sure. I believe I’ll have to write about 150 lessons max. I can’t say for sure though.
Regarding working cycles, my baby is coming in October. I’m happy to get a baby, but I’m worried that she’ll disrupt my working cycle. If she disrupts my working cycle heavily, I might be forced to delay the course completion date again.
I’ll be honest.
But I promise I’m going to do my best to meet the deadline. I’m already trying ways and means to improve my production speed (with some success so far!). I’ll share my experiments with you in the next article.
Thanks for reading. Did this article help you out? If it did, I hope you consider sharing it. You might help someone else out. Thanks so much!